The advance estimate for first quarter real GDP came in at 3.2% and surprised on the upside.
Behind the Headline – Above Trend 2019Q1 GDP (advance)
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Macro Snippets
Behind the Headline – What is an inverted yield curve by Reuters
The 3 month-10 year portion of the yield curve has inverted. Many consider this to be the tell tale sign for an economic recession in 12 to 24 months. However, some observers consider the 2 year U.S. treasury yield curve to be the better indicator. Either way,...
Behind the Headline – R Star in Three Acts
There has been a great deal of uncertainty and anxiety pertaining to the number of Fed rate hikes remaining now that they have completed eight 25bp hikes since December 2015. We took recent public speeches and interviews from Chairman Powell and Vice-Chair Clarida to...
Behind the Headline: Q1 GDP Lower & March Inflation Higher
On April 27th, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its “advance estimate” for the 2018 Q1 real GDP at 2.3%.
Behind the Headline – October CPI
On November 15, 2017, the BEA released its Consumer Price Index showing that the CPI-U rose 0.1% in October.
Behind the Headline – US GDP Surprising at 3 percent
The 2017 Q3 came in at 3% and surprised everyone. What are the contributing factors telling us?
Behind the Headline: Is US GDP Stuck in the Low Gear?
09/11/2017 – The average annual real GDP over the 5 decades since 1950 in the U.S. has been 3.6%. The average GDP in the first decade in the 21st Century was 1.7%. Based on our analysis, we believe the U.S. GDP on average is likely to remain below historical trend.
Behind the Headline – US GDP 2017 Q2 2nd Estimate
On August 30, 2017, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released the Second Estimate for the U.S. second quarter real GDP . In this article, we attempt to understand if the 3% revision is an anomaly.
Behind the Headline – Phillips Curve
The Phillips Curve is a hypothesis and should not be treated as a rule. Here we look at the euro area and the U.S. employment and inflation data to show that there employment or low unemployment is now insufficient to drive inflation.
Behind the Headline: 2017 Q2 GDP
Understanding GDP components offers a more complete story of the underlying drivers to our economy.