Topics discussed in this quarter's commentary are: Growth & Trade The Labor Market Consumer & Housing K-Shape Economy The Fed Global Rates Why Rates Rose Oil & Iran Stock & Codependence What Could Tip It The third quarter commentary offers a more...
FOMC Discussion At the July meeting, a good majority of the FOMC judged that waiting seven weeks was a worthwhile investment, buying time to make a wise decision. Three developments during the intermeeting period led to a firm, unanimous decision to raise rates:...
The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote: The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate....
Chairman Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote titled “In Our Time”, marking his 100th day. This note separates his points already on the public record (from his June 17 and July 29 FOMC press conferences and prior Congressional testimonies) from what the speech newly...
FOMC Discussion Vigorous discussion centered on four questions: Implications of the past five years of high inflation on the current policy conjuncture. To echo an old phrase, has the past really passed? Considered the economic shocks of recent years. Strained supply...
Topics discussed in this quarter's commentary are: Fed Chair Warsh Regime Change The Global Economy The U.S. Iran Negotiation Stock Market Resilience Index Performance The second quarter commentary offers a more in-depth discussion about the economy and investment in...
Summary: Kevin Walsh presided over his first Federal Open Market Committee meeting as the Chairman, succeeding the immediate pass chairman, Jerome Powell, who remains as a governor on the Committee. At Chair Walsh’s April 21, 2026, Senate Banking Committee...
The following summary represents direct quotes (with minor immaterial changes to make reading easier) from the press conference – Prepared remarks and Q&A session. New Chairmanship & New Initiatives At any institution, a change in leadership is a natural and...
Topics discussed in this quarter's commentary are: The Iran War Dimming of the Liberal World Order The Tariff Chaos The K-Shaped Economy AI-Labor Displacement Ballooning Deficit Conclusions & Expectations The first quarter commentary offers a more in-depth...
Summary: Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a sold pace. (No Change) Job gains have remained low, on average, and unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. (Change) The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment...
The following summary represents direct quotes (with minor immaterial changes to make reading easier) from the press conference – Prepared remarks and Q&A session. Dual Mandate Affirmation The U.S. economy has been expanding at a solid pace. While job gains have...
The following summary represents direct quotes (with minor immaterial changes to make reading easier) from the press conference – Prepared remarks and Q&A session. Dual Mandate Affirmation The U.S. economy has been expanding at a solid pace. While job gains have...
Summary: Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a sold pace. (Change) Job gains have remained low, and unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. (Change) The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and...
The following summary represents direct quotes (with minor immaterial changes to make reading easier) from the press conference – Prepared remarks and Q&A session. Dual Mandate Affirmation Squarely focused on achieving dual mandate goals of maximum employment and...
Summary: Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a sold pace. (Change) Job gains have remained low, and unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization. (Change) The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation...
2025 marked a turning point where geopolitics, policy, trade, and capital markets became inseparable drivers of investment outcomes. Global growth slowed modestly, with the International Monetary Fund estimating world GDP expansion at roughly 3.2%, reflecting...
Summary: Recent Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at moderate pace. (No Change) Job gains have slowed this year, and unemployment rate has edged up but remained low through September. More recent indicators are consistent with...
The following summary represents direct quotes (with minor immaterial changes to make reading easier) from the press conference – Prepared remarks and Q&A session. Dual Mandate Affirmation Squarely focused on achieving dual mandate goals of maximum employment and...
The following summary represents direct quotes (with minor immaterial changes to make reading easier) from the press conference – Prepared remarks and Q&A session. Dual Mandate Affirmation Squarely focused on achieving dual mandate goals of maximum employment and...
Summary: Recent Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at moderate pace. (Change) Job gains have slowed this year, and unemployment rate has edged up but remained low. (No Change) Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and...