I have been in many conversations and listened to numerous market observers, economists, and strategists over the past 18-months regarding the U.S. economy. Since the end of the Pandemic and the start of the Fed’s hiking cycle, there has been much speculation about No...
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Quarterly Market Commentary – 2024 Q3
Coming Down the Mountain...Don't Look Down! It is the general consensus among mountain climbers and hikers that going up is relatively safer or easier than coming down. When descending, it is hard to be sure footed when distracted by the height and the fear of...
FOMC September 18, 2024, Press Conference Q&A Summary
The following summary represents direct quotes (with minor immaterial changes to make reading easier) from the press conference. A. Backdrop The U.S. economy is in good shape. It's growing at a solid pace, inflation is coming down, the labor market is in a strong...
FOMC September 18, 2024, Press Release – What has changed?
Summary: Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace. (No Change) Job gains have slowed and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. (Change) Inflation has made further progress towards the 2 percent...
Jerome Powell’s Speech at Jackson Hole
This is a summary of Chairman Jerome Powell’s August 23, 2024, speech at the annual economic symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming. CURRENT STATUS DUAL MANDATE The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) objective has...
FOMC July 31, 2024, Press Release – What has changed?
Summary: Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace. (No Change) Job gains have moderated and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. (Change) Inflation has eased over the past year but remains somewhat...
FOMC July 31, 2024, Press Conference Summary
SUMMARY The FOMC sees the economy is neither overheating or sharply weakening. The labor market continues to normalize. The FOMC remains data dependent and focused on the risk of cutting rates too early or too late. Some of the Committee members examined the...
Quarterly Market Commentary – 2024 Q2
Summary The financial, emotional, geopolitical, demographics, financial and economic impact and effects (especially exposing the system vulnerability and behavioral finance) from the Pandemic have a very long tail. Changes in some areas are more structural and...
FOMC June 12, 2024, Press Conference Summary
Squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. (affirming commitment) Inflation has eased notably over the past two years but remains above the longer-run goal of 2 percent. Total...
FOMC June 12, 2024, Press Release – What has changed?
Summary: Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace. (No Change) Job gains have slowed in recent months but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. (No Change) Inflation has eased over the past...
ECB Press Release June 6, 2024 – What has changed?
Summary Monetary policy has kept financing conditions restrictive. By dampening demand and keeping inflation expectations well anchored, this has made a major contribution to bringing inflation back down. (new) Since the Governing Council meeting in September 2023,...
FOMC May 1, 2024, Press Release – What has changed?
Summary: Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace. (No Change) Job gains have slowed in recent months but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. (No Change) Inflation has eased over the past...
FOMC May 1, 2024, Press Conference Summary
Summary Inflation is still too high, ongoing progress in bringing it down is not assured, and the path forward is uncertain. We are fully committed to returning inflation to our 2 percent goal (commitment and credibility). Our restrictive stance of monetary policy has...
2024 Fiduciary Rule Summary
Definition of an Investment Advice Fiduciary On April 25, 2024, the Department of Labor (Department) issued the final Retirement Security Rule and amendments to several existing Prohibitive Transaction Exemptions. This regulation is effective on September 23, 2024....
Jerome Powell’s Speech at Stanford
Highlights of Jerome Powell's Speech at Stanford Over the past year, inflation has come down significantly, and growth in economic activity and employment was strong. Labor supply increased significantly, thanks to rising participation among 25-to-54-year-olds, as...
Quarterly Market Commentary – 2024 Q1
What's Morphed in 2024Q1? It’s all about inflation and the Fed’s interest rate reaction function. From the absence of forward guidance to the incessant data dependency – understandably in a time of uncertainty – the Fed is feeling its way to a landing. In the prepared...
FOMC March 20, 2024, Press Conference Summary
Summary Inflation is still too high, ongoing progress in bringing it down is not assured, and the path forward is uncertain. We are fully committed to returning inflation to our 2 percent goal (commitment and credibility). Nominal wage growth has been easing, and job...
FOMC March 20, 2024, Press Release – What has changed?
Summary: Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. (Change) Job gains have slowed in recent months but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. (No Change) Job gains have moderated since earlier in...
ECB Press Release March 7, 2024 – What has changed?
Summary Since the last Governing Council meeting in January, inflation has declined further. In the latest ECB staff projections, inflation has been revised down, in particular for 2024 which mainly reflects a lower contribution from energy prices. Staff now project...
FOMC January 31, 2024, Press Conference Summary
Summary Inflation has eased notably over the past year but remains above the longer-run goal of 2 percent. Inflation is still too high; ongoing progress in bringing it down is not assured, and the path forward is uncertain. Longer term inflation expectations appear to...