Highlights of Jerome Powell's Speech at Stanford Over the past year, inflation has come down significantly, and growth in economic activity and employment was strong. Labor supply increased significantly, thanks to rising participation among 25-to-54-year-olds, as...
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Quarterly Market Commentary – 2024 Q1
What's Morphed in 2024Q1? It’s all about inflation and the Fed’s interest rate reaction function. From the absence of forward guidance to the incessant data dependency – understandably in a time of uncertainty – the Fed is feeling its way to a landing. In the prepared...
FOMC March 20, 2024, Press Conference Summary
Summary Inflation is still too high, ongoing progress in bringing it down is not assured, and the path forward is uncertain. We are fully committed to returning inflation to our 2 percent goal (commitment and credibility). Nominal wage growth has been easing, and job...
FOMC March 20, 2024, Press Release – What has changed?
Summary: Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. (Change) Job gains have slowed in recent months but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. (No Change) Job gains have moderated since earlier in...
ECB Press Release March 7, 2024 – What has changed?
Summary Since the last Governing Council meeting in January, inflation has declined further. In the latest ECB staff projections, inflation has been revised down, in particular for 2024 which mainly reflects a lower contribution from energy prices. Staff now project...
FOMC January 31, 2024, Press Conference Summary
Summary Inflation has eased notably over the past year but remains above the longer-run goal of 2 percent. Inflation is still too high; ongoing progress in bringing it down is not assured, and the path forward is uncertain. Longer term inflation expectations appear to...
FOMC January 31, 2024, Press Release – What has changed?
Summary: Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. (Change) Job gains have slowed in recent months but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. (No Change) Job gains have moderated since earlier in...
CNBC Article: Too Many Options
Philip Chao was featured in this article on CNBC.
ECB Press Release January 25, 2024 – What has changed?
Summary The interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 4.50%, 4.75% and 4.00% respectively. (No Change) The past interest rate increases keep being...
Quarterly Market Commentary – 2023 Q4
2023 reminds me of the “Everything Everywhere All at Once” movie. The most anticipated hard landing or recession did not happen even after a rapid 525bp increase in interest rates since 2022. Chair Powell said that the FOMC is “navigating by the stars under cloudy...
FOMC December 13, 2023, Press Release – What has changed?
Summary: Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has slowed from a strong solid pace in the third quarter. (Change) Job gains have slowed in recent months but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. (No Change) Job gains have...
FOMC December 13, 2023, Press Conference Summary
Summary Inflation has eased from its highs, and this has come without a significant increase in unemployment. That is very good news. (dual mandate commitment) But inflation is still too high, ongoing progress in bringing it down is not assured, and the path forward...
Jerome Powell’s Fireside Chat at Spelman College
Highlights of Jerome Powell’s Fireside Chat at Spelman College
FOMC November 1, 2023, Press Conference Summary
The central question for the FOMC: “have we achieved a stance of monetary policy that's sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent over time, sustainably?” Summary: The stance of policy is restrictive, meaning that tight policy is putting downward...
FOMC November 1, 2023, Press Release – What has changed?
Summary: Recent indicators suggest that economic activity expanded at a strong solid pace in the third quarter. (Change) Job gains have slowed in recent months but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. (Change) Job gains have moderated since...
Quarterly Market Commentary – 2023 Q3
Executive Summary The first half of the year was full of hope that inflation will continue to decelerate and thus the Fed will take its foot off the rate hiking gas. The scenario of a soft landing fast became the (desired) base case. This is the immaculate...
Summary of Powell Press Conference
Summary: o Squarely focused on dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices. o Highly attentive to the risks that high inflation poses to both sides of the dual mandate, and thus strongly committed to returning inflation to the 2 percent objective....
FOMC September 20, 2023, Press Release – What has changed?
Summary: Economic activities have been expanding. (No Change) Job gains have slowed in recent months but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. (Change) Inflation remains elevated. (No Change) The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter...
Summary of Jerome Powell’s Remarks at Economic Policy Symposium
Summary of Jerome Powell Remarks, Economic Policy Symposium, Jackson Hole, August 25, 2023 MOVING FORWARD: DETERMINATION Two percent is and will remain the inflation target. Committed to achieving and sustaining a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently...
ECB Press Release July 27, 2023 – What has changed?
Summary Decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points; accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be increased to 4.25%, 4.50% and 3.75%...