The advance estimate for first quarter real GDP came in at 3.2% and surprised on the upside. This is above the consensus estimate by market participants. The two federal reserve bank nowcast models also projected lower economic growth for the quarter. As a reference, the average GDP has been at 2.3% since 2015Q2. We are not convinced that this is repealing the New Normal. In fact, consumer spending is growing at a diminishing rate and inflation continues to cool.
Here is our Behind the Headline look at the first quarter GDP.