Topics discussed in this quarter's commentary are: The Iran War Dimming of the Liberal World Order The Tariff Chaos The K-Shaped Economy AI-Labor Displacement Ballooning Deficit Conclusions & Expectations The first quarter commentary offers a more in-depth...
2025 marked a turning point where geopolitics, policy, trade, and capital markets became inseparable drivers of investment outcomes. Global growth slowed modestly, with the International Monetary Fund estimating world GDP expansion at roughly 3.2%, reflecting...
Our Thinking (not advice) So far in 2025, stocks have done better than most have expected along with gold and bonds in genera. How much was this based on fundamentals and how much is driven by AI and related/supporting industries and the beginning of a rate cutting...
AllianceBernstein L.P. (AB) requested for a DOL Advisory Opinion regarding if AB’s Lifetime Income Strategy (LIS) program meets the requirements to be a qualified default investment alternative (QDIA) under ERISA section 404(c)(5) and the Department’s regulation at 29...
Our Thinking (not advice) Events rarely unfold in a predictable, linear fashion. While we often look for simple cause-and-effect explanations, the world operates through complex systems where outcomes emerge from interactions, feedback loops, and delays. A single...
Our Thinking (not advice) Since the last report in early January, the world has turned upside down. The America First policy along with the initiation of a trade war against the world is like a bull in a China shop. The most used word since Trump’s inauguration is...
A Kaleidoscope of Possibilities What we have learned from the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID pandemic is that, every so many years, endogenous or exogenous events shock our economy and our highly integrated and complex global system. Transmission...
Coming Down the Mountain...Don't Look Down! It is the general consensus among mountain climbers and hikers that going up is relatively safer or easier than coming down. When descending, it is hard to be sure footed when distracted by the height and the fear of...
Summary The financial, emotional, geopolitical, demographics, financial and economic impact and effects (especially exposing the system vulnerability and behavioral finance) from the Pandemic have a very long tail. Changes in some areas are more structural and...
What's Morphed in 2024Q1? It’s all about inflation and the Fed’s interest rate reaction function. From the absence of forward guidance to the incessant data dependency – understandably in a time of uncertainty – the Fed is feeling its way to a landing. In the prepared...
2023 reminds me of the “Everything Everywhere All at Once” movie. The most anticipated hard landing or recession did not happen even after a rapid 525bp increase in interest rates since 2022. Chair Powell said that the FOMC is “navigating by the stars under cloudy...
Executive Summary The first half of the year was full of hope that inflation will continue to decelerate and thus the Fed will take its foot off the rate hiking gas. The scenario of a soft landing fast became the (desired) base case. This is the immaculate...
2023 Q2 Commentary: Clear as Mud The second quarter data continue to support every market narrative – more noise and few clear signals. The stock market extended its first quarter advance, and the S&P 500 Index in June entered a new bull market (20% above the 2022...
2023 Q1 Commentary: Walk and Chew The excitement and relief of “no landing” and “soft landing” in the U.S. during the past 6-months have given way to a hard landing scenario on March 10th when Silicon Valley Bank was shut down by federal regulators. An investigation...
An overview of how COVID negatively impacted both supply and demand worldwide.
A lot of money is being spent on transitioning to “new energy,” but we are not ready to abandon our current energy infrastructure completely. There are investment opportunities in both old and new energy.
2022 Q4 Commentary: The Future is Always Uncertain 2022 was a year of non-linear recovery which incorporated significant political, financial, investment and human turmoil. Many of us are glad that 2022 is behind us, but time is a human construct. There is nothing...
Please access our summary of the Labor Department’s long awaited final rule on Financial Factors in Selecting Plan Investments here. We find the approach in the investment selection process for fiduciaries to remain consistent with the long-imposed ERISA framework. ...
This is the 3rd quarter of 2022 market commentary which represents the current views of Experiential Wealth, Inc.
This is the 2nd quarter of 2022 market commentary which represents the current views of Experiential Wealth, Inc.