Summary: Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. (Change) Job gains have slowed in recent months but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. (No Change) Job gains have moderated since earlier in...
Summary Since the last Governing Council meeting in January, inflation has declined further. In the latest ECB staff projections, inflation has been revised down, in particular for 2024 which mainly reflects a lower contribution from energy prices. Staff now project...
Summary Inflation has eased notably over the past year but remains above the longer-run goal of 2 percent. Inflation is still too high; ongoing progress in bringing it down is not assured, and the path forward is uncertain. Longer term inflation expectations appear to...
Summary: Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. (Change) Job gains have slowed in recent months but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. (No Change) Job gains have moderated since earlier in...
Philip Chao was featured in this article on CNBC.
Summary The interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 4.50%, 4.75% and 4.00% respectively. (No Change) The past interest rate increases keep being...
2023 reminds me of the “Everything Everywhere All at Once” movie. The most anticipated hard landing or recession did not happen even after a rapid 525bp increase in interest rates since 2022. Chair Powell said that the FOMC is “navigating by the stars under cloudy...
Summary: Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has slowed from a strong solid pace in the third quarter. (Change) Job gains have slowed in recent months but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. (No Change) Job gains have...
Summary Inflation has eased from its highs, and this has come without a significant increase in unemployment. That is very good news. (dual mandate commitment) But inflation is still too high, ongoing progress in bringing it down is not assured, and the path forward...
Highlights of Jerome Powell’s Fireside Chat at Spelman College
The central question for the FOMC: “have we achieved a stance of monetary policy that's sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent over time, sustainably?” Summary: The stance of policy is restrictive, meaning that tight policy is putting downward...
Summary: Recent indicators suggest that economic activity expanded at a strong solid pace in the third quarter. (Change) Job gains have slowed in recent months but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. (Change) Job gains have moderated since...
Executive Summary The first half of the year was full of hope that inflation will continue to decelerate and thus the Fed will take its foot off the rate hiking gas. The scenario of a soft landing fast became the (desired) base case. This is the immaculate...
Summary: o Squarely focused on dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices. o Highly attentive to the risks that high inflation poses to both sides of the dual mandate, and thus strongly committed to returning inflation to the 2 percent objective....
Summary: Economic activities have been expanding. (No Change) Job gains have slowed in recent months but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. (Change) Inflation remains elevated. (No Change) The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter...
Summary of Jerome Powell Remarks, Economic Policy Symposium, Jackson Hole, August 25, 2023 MOVING FORWARD: DETERMINATION Two percent is and will remain the inflation target. Committed to achieving and sustaining a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently...
Summary Decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points; accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be increased to 4.25%, 4.50% and 3.75%...
Summary: Economic activities have been expanding. (No Change) Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. (No Change) Inflation remains elevated. (No Change) The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter credit...
2023 Q2 Commentary: Clear as Mud The second quarter data continue to support every market narrative – more noise and few clear signals. The stock market extended its first quarter advance, and the S&P 500 Index in June entered a new bull market (20% above the 2022...
Summary Decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points; accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be increased to 4.00% and 3.50%...