- We had a V-shaped bounce after a sudden and steep fall, but the V-shaped bounce has not yet returned the U.S. or global economy back to pre-COVID-19 “normal” economic activities.
- We are also experiencing a K-shaped recovery where the financial market has rewarded the companies that thrived based on technology while companies that rely on human contact continue to struggle. This is evidenced by the increasing wealth and income divide for workers and families in the two different economies.
- We now are in the “square root” portion of the recovery where the initial V- shaped bounce has slowed and the trajectory of climbing back to normal has somewhat flattened.
- Depending on the scope and scale of the expected COVID-19 resurgence during this fall/winter flu season and the federal and state government responses, we could enter a W- shaped recovery where the economy retreats before furthering its normalization.
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