· Economic activity at a solid rate (change)
· Labor market continues to strengthen (no change)
· Unemployment declined further (change)
· Household spending continues to expand (no change)
· Business fixed investment picked up (no change)
· Inflation measure on a 12-month basis declined (changed)
· Inflation expectation and market based inflation are little changed (no change)
· Economic activity is expected to expand moderately (no change)
· Near term risks to the economic outlook appear balanced (no change)
· Hurricanes impact would likely be temporary (no change)
· Inflation may rise due to hurricanes in the short term (no change)
· Maintain federal fund rate target range (no change)
· Balance sheet normalization in October (no change)
· Bottom Line: Economic activities are sold with continuing improvement in the labor market and inflation is expected to return to the 2% target in the medium term. This sets up a rate hike in the December meeting.
For release at 2 p.m. EDT September 20 November 01, 2017
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July September indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year. Job gains have remained at a solid rate despite hurricane-related disruptions. Although the hurricanes caused a drop in recent months, and payroll employment in September, the unemployment rate has stayed low declined further. Household spending has been expanding at a moderate rate, and growth in business fixed investment has picked up in recent quarters. On a 12-month basis, Gasoline prices rose in the aftermath of the hurricanes, boosting overall inflation and the measure excluding in September; however, inflation for items other than food and energy prices remained soft. On a 12-month basis, both inflation measures have declined this year and are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria have devastated many communities, inflicting severe hardship. Storm Hurricane-related disruptions and rebuilding will continue to affect economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, but past experience suggests that the storms are unlikely to materially alter the course of the national economy over the medium term. Consequently, the Committee continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Higher prices for gasoline and some other items in the aftermath of the hurricanes will likely boost inflation temporarily; apart from that effect, inflation Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term but to stabilize around the Committee’s 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.
In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1 to 1-1/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.
The In October, the Committee will initiate the balance sheet normalization program described initiated in the June October 2017 Addendum to the Committee’s Policy Normalization Principles and Plans.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; and Jerome H. Powell and Randal K. Quarles.
Source: The Federal Reserve