With almost 100% of the market expecting a 25bp rate hike, the first act of the new FOMC chairman did not disappoint. There were no surprises per se in the press release either. The FOMC recognizes the continued improvement in the labor market and the slow return of inflation to the 2% target as the economy extends its expansion for another quarter. The FOMC is on pace for two more rate increases this year and remains data dependent. It is important to note that the press release confirmed that household spending and business investment have moderated which may be confirmed with now a projected slowing of Q1 GDP. The FOMC also projects a continued tightening of the labor market with U3 expected to grind lower.
Here is our language change comparison to the January 2018 press release.