Experiential Wealth


Economic Landings: What & When

Oct 20, 2024 | Individuals, Institutions, Opinions, Publicly Speaking

I have been in many conversations and listened to numerous market observers, economists, and strategists over the past 18-months regarding the U.S. economy. Since the end of the Pandemic and the start of the Fed’s hiking cycle, there has been much speculation about No Landing, Soft Landing and Hard Landing. In response to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the Fed maintained a Zero Interest rate Policy (ZIRP) from Jan 2009 through mid-December 2020. After lifting off and raising rates, the Fed reversed course in response to the growing pandemic threat and once again went back to ZIRP in late April 2020 and maintained the zero-bound rate until March 2022 when the Fed began its aggressive hiking cycle to combat inflation. After 16-months of hikes, the Fed reached the peak and held rates at 5.25-5.50bp for another 16-months before commencing the rate cutting cycle on September 18, 2024. This hiking cycle is considered one of the most aggressive in FOMC history, and predicting an ensuing economic Hard Landing seems very reasonable.

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