Summary 

  • Incoming data suggest muted inflation pressures and weak euro area growth dynamics while ongoing employment growth and increasing wages continue to underpin the resilience of the euro area economy. (no change)
  • Keep key ECB interest rates unchanged. (change)
  • Keep rates at their present or lower levels until we have seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2%. (no change)
  • Maintain net purchases under the asset purchase programme (APP) at a monthly pace of €20 billion since 11-1-2019. This is for as long as necessary and to end shortly before raising key ECB interest rates. (no change)
  • Continue to reinvest, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time past the date of raising the key ECB interest rates and, in any case, for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation. (no change)
  • The ongoing weakness of international trade in an environment of persistent global uncertainties continues to weigh on the euro area manufacturing sector and is dampening investment growth. (no change)
  • Incoming economic data and survey information point to some stabilisation in euro area growth dynamics, with near-term growth expected to be similar to rates observed in previous quarters. (change)
  • These projections foresee annual real GDP increasing by 1.2% in 2019, 1.1% in 2020 (revised down) and 1.4% in both 2021 and 2022. (REMOVED)
  • Governments with fiscal space should act in an effective and timely manner. In countries where public debt is high, governments need to pursue prudent policies that will create the conditions for automatic stabilisers to operate freely. (no change)
  • An ample degree of monetary accommodation is still necessary for the continued sustained robust convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. (no change)

Click here for the full commentary.