World Affairs Council, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, and the Dallas Regional Chamber of Commerce, Dallas, Texas
- The labor market remains in solid condition, having cooled off from the significantly overheated conditions of a couple of years ago, and is now by many metrics back to more normal levels that are consistent with our employment mandate. (Employment Mandate Reached)
- The labor market has cooled to the point where it is no longer a source of significant inflationary pressures. Progress on inflation has been broad based. Inflation is running much closer to our 2 percent longer-run goal, but it is not there yet. We are committed to finishing the job. With labor market conditions in rough balance and inflation expectations well anchored, I expect inflation to continue to come down toward our 2 percent objective, albeit on a sometimes-bumpy path. (Price Stability Mandate in sight)
- We are confident that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the economy and the labor market can be maintained, with inflation moving sustainably down to 2 percent. We see the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals as being roughly in balance, and we are attentive to the risks to both sides. We know that reducing policy restraint too quickly could hinder progress on inflation. At the same time, reducing policy restraint too slowly could unduly weaken economic activity and employment. (measured steps continues)
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20241114a.htm
- During the Discussion Portion of the Conference:
- Policy remains restrictive currently.
- To find and reach the neutral interest rate (r*) the Fed should move carefully and patiently especially since policy impact has a long and variable lag.
- Economy is doing well but the labor market is cooling with inflation on a bumpy path to 2%. We are in a good place suggesting the current rate policy consideration of not to fats and not too slow is on target.