What’s Morphed in 2024Q1? It’s all about inflation and the Fed’s interest rate reaction function. From the absence of forward guidance to the incessant data dependency – understandably in a time of uncertainty – the Fed is feeling its way to a landing. In the...
2023 reminds me of the “Everything Everywhere All at Once” movie. The most anticipated hard landing or recession did not happen even after a rapid 525bp increase in interest rates since 2022. Chair Powell said that the FOMC is “navigating by the stars under cloudy...
Executive Summary The first half of the year was full of hope that inflation will continue to decelerate and thus the Fed will take its foot off the rate hiking gas. The scenario of a soft landing fast became the (desired) base case. This is the immaculate...
2023 Q2 Commentary: Clear as Mud The second quarter data continue to support every market narrative – more noise and few clear signals. The stock market extended its first quarter advance, and the S&P 500 Index in June entered a new bull market (20% above the 2022...
Philip Chao sheds light on the recent tremors in the banking world, marked by significant bank failures. Explore the failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank, surpassing the size of the 2008 crisis. Understand the reasons behind these...
