This global pandemic is not a Black Swan event – an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially significant rewards or consequences.  COVID-19, like SARS, MERS, Ebola and other viruses before, is quite a predictable event, and one day, another novel virus will attack us.  We know about the existence of the virus, and we also know the effective way to minimize transmission as well as the limitation of medicine.

To gain a better perspective about the future of the financial market, we need to go beyond applying the standard, backward-looking factors and develop a better understanding about COVID-19 and its trajectory as well as its full impact on our economy, assuming everyone is faithful to social distancing and personal hygiene to a varying degree of compliance.

Although it is too early to conduct a post-mortem of the COVID-19 pandemic, there are certain paths that seem obvious.

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